Credence Sports · A product of Penumbra Partners
Baseball analytics, model methodology, and market structure.
Credence Fantasy Football is live. Here's what we built, what our historical track record actually shows, and what happened when a pre-launch audit found a problem in our own projections.
Our most important model feature turned out to be a data leak — quietly making the model look smarter than it actually was. Here's how we caught it, why we rebuilt the model clean and shipped it this week, and why we're telling you about a mistake no user would ever have seen.
Credence Sports started with baseball, a love of data, and a frustration that the gap between what I knew about a game and what I could actually do with that knowledge was too wide. Here's why we built it, why we chose Bayesian inference over frequentist models, and what we mean when we say we show our uncertainty.