Daily edge, quantified.
Bayesian sports analytics that shows its work — model probability, uncertainty range, and the reasoning behind every pick.
Today's analysis is processing — new picks arrive after lineup confirmation.
HOU @ KC
Model assigns 17.1% win probability — a +31.7pp edge over the Bovada closing line.
Why Credence
Every pick shows the model probability, market probability, and the full uncertainty range — not just a directional call.
Only picks where the entire credible interval clears the market line reach the dashboard. Marginal calls stay out.
Bayesian sub-models for pitching, offense, bullpen, and run environment — every factor is visible and labeled.
How it works
Statcast pitch data, live odds feeds, and confirmed lineup data form the foundation of every analysis run.
Bayesian sub-models quantify uncertainty across run environment, pitching, offense, and bullpen — producing a credible interval, not just a point estimate.
Only picks where the full credible interval clears the market line reach your dashboard. No marginal calls.
Credence Sports shows every losing bet. Win rate, mean CLV, and P&L are calculated from all qualified picks — not a curated subset. The model's uncertainty is always visible.
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Picks are informational only and do not constitute financial advice. You are solely responsible for any wagers placed.